Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Iowa Democrats send a SCUD Nussle's way

All this talk about abortion is flashback 80s sorority Big Ten style. Drama! Who needs it?

Actually, I do have a few thoughts, but I need to think about how to say it. I’ll give you a hint: It’s not about babies and it’s not about women, it’s about where everybody powwows when they talk “unplanned pregnancy” – the uterus. I’ll explain that later, sort of, if, well, yeah, but later. This is almost like talking to my adolescents about body issues, actually that’s easier.

What I am surprised about is the Democrat’s co-opting the GOP abortion issue histrionics and using it to blow smoke long enough to hide the latest Rasmussen polling numbers. At least I haven’t seen much of a discussion on the numbers.

Rasmussen is reporting that Culver and Nussle are in a statistical dead heat. And the really good news for Nussle, the poll was in the field a day before team Nussle amped up their Chet “cookie jar” Culver ads spelling out Chet’s Big Idea to risk Iowa’s retirement fund on home grown talent and their Big Ideas.

...It's touch-and-go for the major-party candidates in Iowa's race for the Governor's mansion. In the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll, Democrat Chet Culver, Iowa Secretary of State, edges out Republican Congressman Jim Nussle by just two points, 42% to 40% (crosstabs avaliable for purchase, but not from me).

Culver led by three points in July and has been narrowly in front most of the year. Still, this race is clearly in the Toss-Up category, with both candidates well short of the 50% level of support.

The two candidates have agreed to a series of three debates, though Nussle has been publicly pressuring his opponent to accept as many as eight debates. Nussle reportedly aired his "first attack ad of the campaign" on August 29, a day after we conducted the current survey.

Both candidates attract support from most fellow party members. The two are evenly matched among unaffiliated voters, but Culver wins 56% of moderates. …

I can’t help but think the Dems and their dear & good friend Mike Glover at the AP saw this Rasmussen mood killer and decided to smack up a creative preemptive strike – send a direct shot into GOP territory by parsing candidate survey language to splinter team Nussle’s base. Very clever. Too clever.

In fact, it’ll back fire on the Democrats by making the slightly confused Nussle foot soldiers step back and do a double take on the Democrats motives for making an issue out of Nussle’s pro-life stand. Then, when they’ve sufficiently figured it out, and let’s hope it takes them less than an hour, the Nussle soldiers will jump back in to campaign mode with both feet, two hands and their party issued cell phones.

The one tiny problem is how this non-story story may influence the way moderates, nay swing voters, nay people who really shouldn’t be voting but vote anyway, view Nussle. Is team Nussle’s sudden need to reissue the pro-life credentials going to hurt with the moderate no-party voters? In this respect, the Dems made a nice play, but I expect team Nussle to be investigating clever ways to scud the Dems base. Patty Judge’s Ag record on environmental issues anyone?

We are only in early September; I just might have to quit my day job working with scissors to stay home and blog.

(Yes, I've already seen Krusty . And no, I wrote this before reading today's post. Honest.)


Comments:
Did you write this before the Beaumont piece today in which Nussle finally and personally answered the question on his position of a South Dakota ban on all abortions in Iowa, and he indicated he would support such a ban in Iowa?
 
You know, thems' parsin' words.

How in the world will Nussle ever be able to say the exact right thing on abortion for every voter willing to consider voting for him. He can't do it. Nobody can make every voter completely happy about this issue or any other issue. You have to take a candidate in total, and live with their less than perfect views on a few issues.
 
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