Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Iowa or South Carolina in the middle of January?

Got an e-mail from a South Carolina blogger, Schot Line, asking about Mark Warner's -- Governor of Virginia, longtime Virginia political operative and Presidential Wannabe -- prospects in Iowa. That is hard to say, although, after visiting Iowa in June he hasn't been back in a politicking way -- but he is visiting South Carolina.

We can note the lack of Warner to Iowa visits in a couple of ways. One, Warner knows Vilsack is running, so why bother with Iowa. Two, Warner has a good gut instinct that the Iowa caucus in '08, at least on the Democratic side, is going to be a sideshow, and the real campaign will start down in South Carolina where they have more than one ethnically diverse person per 100 white people. Take your pick.

Another option is that Warner knows he's got no chance here whether Vilsack runs or not. As a southerner he feels he's got a good chance to win S.C. and is putting all his eggs in that basket in the hopes that he'll get a bigger overall bump by not contesting Iowa and winning there instead of finishing low in Iowa and 2nd or 3rd in S.C. Just a thought.
Oh, probably, but the "don't bother with Iowa" thinking has caused some campaign headaches in the recent past. Do you remember Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman? The only way Iowa becomes truly irrelevant for the 08 Democratic caucus is if our own dude runs, ala Tom Harkin in 1992.
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